{
  "creator": [
    "Wilson, Brent M.",
    "Wixted, John T."
  ],
  "date": [
    "2023-11-17"
  ],
  "description": [
    "The headline findings from the Open Science Collaboration (2015)―namely, that 36% of original experiments replicated at p < .05, with the overall replication effect sizes being half as large as the original effects―cannot be meaningfully interpreted without a formal model. A simple model-based approach might ask: what would the state of original science be and what would replication results show if original experiments tested true effects half the time (prior odds = 1), true effects had a medium effect size (Cohen’s δ = 0.50), and power to detect true effects was 50%? Assuming no questionable research practices, 91% of p < .05 findings in the original literature would be true positives. However, only 58% of original p < .05 findings would be expected to replicate using the Open Science Collaboration approach, and the replication effects overall would be only ~60% as large as the original effects. A minor variant of this model yields an expected replication rate of only 45%, with overall replication effect sizes dropping by half. If the state of original science is as grim as a non-model-based (i.e., intuitive) interpretation of the Open Science Collaboration data suggests, should it be this easy to largely account for those findings using a model in which 91% of statistically significant findings in the original science literature are true positives? Claims that the findings reported by the Open Science Collaboration indicate a replication crisis should not be based solely on intuition but should instead be accompanied by a specific model that supports that interpretation."
  ],
  "format": [
    "application/pdf",
    "text/html",
    "text/xml"
  ],
  "identifier": [
    "https://spb.psychopen.eu/index.php/spb/article/view/9981",
    "10.32872/spb.9981"
  ],
  "language": [
    "eng"
  ],
  "publisher": [
    "PsychOpen GOLD / Leibniz Institut for Psychology (ZPID)"
  ],
  "relation": [
    "https://spb.psychopen.eu/index.php/spb/article/view/9981/9981.pdf",
    "https://spb.psychopen.eu/index.php/spb/article/view/9981/9981.html",
    "https://spb.psychopen.eu/index.php/spb/article/view/9981/9981.xml"
  ],
  "rights": [
    "Copyright (c) 2023 Brent M. Wilson, John T. Wixted",
    "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0"
  ],
  "source": [
    "Social Psychological Bulletin; Vol. 18 (2023); 1-16",
    "2569-653X",
    "10.32872/spb.v18"
  ],
  "subject": [
    "null hypothesis significance testing",
    "false positives",
    "positive predictive value",
    "replication crisis"
  ],
  "title": [
    "On the Importance of Modeling the Invisible World of Underlying Effect Sizes"
  ],
  "type": [
    "info:eu-repo/semantics/article",
    "info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion"
  ]
}